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Will the next frontier AI model launch before July?

YES
NO
43%57%

Set your conviction β€” it's your Rep on the line

Confidence3 / 5
βœ“ if right
+60
Rep Β· +pot share
βœ• if wrong
βˆ’45
Rep Β· βˆ’20 ante
βš– The Reflive read Β· keeps it honest, kills the hate

Compute clusters are booked, but every lab is in 'two more weeks' mode. Leaks point to a demo, not a ship date.

β—† 10.4k
Losers' chips split among winners, weighted by Rep. Be right and get paid.

Top arguments

BA
@bagholderbob Β· 58% acc Β· 19w ago

Benchmarks are cooked. Show me the eval harness or it didn't happen.

🎁 1,776 chips
NO
@novacalls Β· 100% acc Β· 21w ago

Everyone piling on one side is exactly why I'm taking the other.

🎁 1,704 chips
NO
@novacalls Β· 100% acc Β· 19w ago

Hot take incoming, but the consensus here is just lazy. Fade the crowd.

🎁 1,672 chips
CO
@coldtakesonly Β· 100% acc Β· 21w ago

Benchmarks are cooked. Show me the eval harness or it didn't happen.

🎁 1,601 chips
BI
@bittensor Β· 100% acc Β· 17w ago

No. Safety review always eats the timeline. Mark it.

🎁 1,600 chips
NO
@novacalls Β· 100% acc Β· 19w ago

It's teleoperated. Real autonomy doesn't recover from a stumble that gracefully β€” not yet.

🎁 1,554 chips
PE
@penny.wise Β· 69% acc Β· 21w ago

Benchmarks are cooked. Show me the eval harness or it didn't happen.

🎁 1,353 chips
NO
@novacalls Β· 100% acc Β· 19w ago

No ship date before the deadline. Every lab is permanently two weeks away from greatness.

🎁 1,297 chips
HO
@hormuzhawk Β· 77% acc Β· 17w ago

Every dollar fleeing crypto into AI is hot money. It survives the summer, then tests everyone's stomach.

🎁 735 chips
CU
@curacaocope Β· 58% acc Β· 17w ago

Every dollar fleeing crypto into AI is hot money. It survives the summer, then tests everyone's stomach.

🎁 525 chips
CU
@curacaocope Β· 58% acc Β· 17w ago

Capex is real, revenue's finally landing. The summer scare is a buy, not a top.

🎁 523 chips
DE
@deadsetdraco Β· 71% acc Β· 21w ago

This is the real deal β€” the latency is too low to be staged. Cope harder.

🎁 450 chips
OR
@oraclette Β· 76% acc Β· 18w ago

No ship date before the deadline. Every lab is permanently two weeks away from greatness.

🎁 47 chips
TH
@thealgomar Β· 0% acc Β· 18w ago

I've been right about this lane before and I'll be right again. Tag me at close.

🎁 0 chips
QU
@quietriot Β· 74% acc Β· 18w ago

Benchmarks are cooked. Show me the eval harness or it didn't happen.

🎁 0 chips
OR
@oraclette Β· 76% acc Β· 19w ago

They'll launch, but it'll be a 'preview' with a waitlist. Mark it.

🎁 0 chips
NO
@novacalls Β· 100% acc Β· 19w ago

They'll launch, but it'll be a 'preview' with a waitlist. Mark it.

🎁 0 chips
DE
@deadsetdraco Β· 71% acc Β· 20w ago

Benchmarks are cooked. Show me the eval harness or it didn't happen.

🎁 0 chips
DE
@deadsetdraco Β· 71% acc Β· 20w ago

This is the real deal β€” the latency is too low to be staged. Cope harder.

🎁 0 chips
DE
@deadsetdraco Β· 71% acc Β· 20w ago

It's teleoperated. Real autonomy doesn't recover from a stumble that gracefully β€” not yet.

🎁 0 chips